Tyler Winklevoss has published a bitcoin price forecast that assumes a scenario that could take it to $500,000.
In fact on the official website WinklevossCapital.com has published a long article entitled „The Case for $500K Bitcoin“ in which he analyzes the current global financial scenario, and its possible evolutions.
In particular, he focused on the role of gold and oil as reliable reserves of value, and the fact that the U.S. dollar has also played this role over the past 75 years.
However, Winklevoss says:
„We believe that there are fundamental problems with gold, oil and the US dollar as reserves of value in the future. In the following, we will demonstrate that bitcoin is ultimately the only long-term protection against inflation“.
With regard to the dollar, he says that the spectre of inflation, or even hyperinflation, can begin to be seen on the horizon and that according to him „the Great Monetary Inflation is near“.
In particular, he shows a graph showing that, only in 2020, the M2 money supply increased from less than $16,000 to more than $18,000, an increase of more than 13% in a single year.
M2 money stock
As far as oil is concerned, he says that it is no longer a reliable reserve of value, due to a drastic increase in supply due to technological innovation, and the fact that it has been discovered that there are many more reserves than was thought.
On the other hand, there are also some dynamics in place that are undermining its demand, such as the push towards renewable energy, and the political pressure to reduce the input of co2.
As far as gold is concerned, Winklevoss admits that it is currently a reliable value reserve, and is the classic hedge against inflation.
However, there are also a couple of points that should be considered carefully with regard to the value reserve par excellence.
First of all its supply is not virtually limited, and in the future it is even conceivable that there may be extraterrestrial sources of supply, since some techniques to extract it for example from asteroids are already being studied.
Moreover it is difficult to move it, for example during a war or if there is a change in the attitude of the governments towards the property rights.
Winklevoss‘ prediction: the price of Bitcoin underestimated
At this point Winklevoss, starting from the comparison between the market capitalization of more than 200 billion dollars of bitcoin, and that of about 9,000 billion dollars of gold, assumes that, if bitcoin continues on the current path, the bullish scenario is currently underestimated by a multiple of 45.
In other words, the price of BTC in the future could appreciate 45 times from today, bringing it to $500,000 per BTC.
Moreover, if bitcoin would replace part of the $11.7 trillion of foreign currency reserves held by governments, with central banks starting to diversify their foreign fiat holdings even partially in bitcoin, then the multiplication factor could reach 55x, with BTC at $600,000.
Finally, however, it should be remembered that Tyler Winklevoss is the owner of the Gemini exchange crypto which he earns through bitcoin trading.